RAF 10: Will Chimaev vs Danis Actually Happen?

RAF 10 hits St. Louis on Friday, and if you squint at the card hard enough, it looks legitimate. Khamzat Chimaev vs Dillon Danis headlines. Ben Askren is coming back. The problem isn't the matchups—it's that we've all seen this movie before, and it ends with someone pulling out via Instagram at 2 a.m. local time.

Dillon Danis has cancelled so many times that his cancellation has a cancellation. He pulled from the last event on 48 hours' notice. Before that, it was injury. Before that, it was contract disputes. Before that, he just didn't show up to weigh-ins and then explained why on Twitter six hours later. Danis has mastered the professional fade, and now he's supposed to show up at a wrestling promotion in the middle of June to get pressed by a top-five combat athlete. Odds on Danis making weight Friday? Stick with 'no.'

Here's the thing about Dillon: he's not stupid. He knows Chimaev is among the most dangerous grapplers alive right now. Chimaev has a wrestling pedigree that traces back through the Caucasus mountains to actual warrior culture. Danis has a social media presence and a grappling belt that he earned partly through matchmaking that would be embarrassing if anyone cared. The man got a "superfight" with Gordon Ryan by being recognizable on Instagram, not by proving he could hang at that level. And now he's supposed to go against Chimaev, who doesn't care about clout, doesn't care about your follower count, and will absolutely bury you under pressure if given the chance.

So what's Danis thinking? He's thinking: pull out, cite injury, preserve the mystique, rebook for 2027 when memories fade. It's the move that's worked for him. Why change now?

But let's say Danis actually shows up, makes weight, and is healthy. Chimaev is coming off injury himself. The man has had a rough couple of years. Time away from competition is time away from sharpness, and wrestling is a sport where sharpness deteriorates faster than cardio. Chimaev is still a nightmare matchup, but he's not the same unstoppable force who was destroying people at 170 and 185 pounds in MMA. He's been forced into a grappling-only ruleset where his size advantage matters less and his wrestling mat time matters more. Does the injury slow him down? That's the angle Danis is hunting—some weird position where leg locks materialize from nowhere.

More likely: Danis doesn't make Friday. His weight is "not cooperating." His back flares up. Something with the contract gets disputed. He posts something cryptic about respecting his body, and his fans understand. Chimaev shows up, looks around the arena, shrugs, and takes a fight with whoever's backup-est backup is standing in the wings. RAF has a Plan B, and it's usually someone named Dave or Carlos who moved to Missouri specifically for this type of situation.

Then there's the Tsarukyan situation. The headline says Tsarukyan is fighting Ferguson, but Tsarukyan vs Ferguson at RAF 10 doesn't track—Tsarukyan is booked for RAF 11 in July, and the opponent listed depends on who's healthy that week. Arman Tsarukyan is a serious grappler coming off injury. Ferguson is a legend in transition. That's a reasonable match for the co-main or a solid supporting card spot. But there's the catch: is Tsarukyan fully recovered? Is Ferguson still sharp? These are the questions that don't get answered until someone is actually bleeding on the mat.

And then there's Ben Askren coming back to competitive wrestling. Ben Askren suffered a severe staph infection and pneumonia that required a double lung transplant. He's been out of competitive action for over a year. His lungs are literally new lungs. And RAF is booking him in what's being framed as a comeback match. Against Belal Muhammad. At RAF 11, July 18.

This is the most insane athlete-return story in grappling right now, and it's being treated like a solid mid-card booking. Askren is one of the best wrestlers America has ever produced. He went from college wrestling at Missouri to dominance in MMA to wrestling camps and YouTube content to nearly death and now to wrestling again. The man's resilience is genuinely admirable. But there's a difference between wanting to compete and being ready to compete, and Askren is walking that line in real time.

Belal Muhammad is 0-1 in RAF, coming off a loss to David Carr. This is not a gimme opponent, and it's not a warmup. Muhammad will pressure Askren from the start. He will test those new lungs. He will see if there's ring rust, if there's caution, if there's anything left of the explosiveness that made Askren dangerous. And Askren will either rise to it or learn something hard about recovery.

The stakes aren't just the match. Can an athlete come back from a health crisis that stopped his heart and actually perform? For that reason alone, RAF 11 might be the most important event on the card, even if it's not the headliner.

Then there's RAF itself. The organization has a reputation for chaos. Not the fun kind. The kind where logistics fail, refs make catastrophic calls, and timekeeping mysteriously goes sideways. RAF is still the best wrestling-focused promotion going, but the bar for "professional wrestling promotion" isn't as high as it should be. You show up, you wrestle, and if the other guy doesn't cancel, things usually happen. That's basically the standard.

So here's what's going to happen. Danis will either make the fight or he won't, and the second option has better odds. Chimaev will be sharp or ring-rusty, and there's genuine uncertainty there. Tsarukyan will be further recovery or fully back, and you won't know until the match starts. Askren will inspire or he'll teach the lesson that some comebacks shouldn't be attempted. And RAF will pull off the event or it will stumble on some detail that shouldn't be hard.

Most likely outcome: the event happens. The wrestling is solid. Chimaev probably wins by whatever devastating method he chooses. Askren goes to a decision and maybe steals it on a technical call. The community spends the next month arguing about scoring. Danis's Instagram doesn't post anything new, which is how you know he never showed up.

Tune in Friday to find out which way the chaos breaks.

This post was generated by AI. Sources are linked below. Follow @bjj-problems on YouTube for the weekly video digest.

Sources

• RAF 10 Card and Fighter Details
• Ben Askren Wrestling Return 2026